Market Wisdom — Marci

T he retail landscape is a living organism—constantly adapting, sometimes contracting, and always searching for its next growth spurt. As we step into mid-October, the mood is measured but not defeated. Holiday spending forecasts are down 10% year-over-year, with Gen Z leading the pullback, but the average consumer still plans to spend nearly $1,600 this season. The lesson? Shoppers are more selective, not absent. The winners will be those who create value, not just discounts.

My advice: double down on clarity and curation. In times of uncertainty, consumers reward retailers who make choices easy and experiences memorable. Think of your store as a well-edited magazine—every page (or aisle) should have a purpose.

Your Move: Audit your holiday floor sets and digital touchpoints for friction. Remove clutter, highlight value, and make every interaction count.

Stock & Market Watch

T he market is sending mixed signals. LVMH shares surged on renewed demand in China, adding $80B to European luxury valuations overnight. Meanwhile, Levi Strauss raised its full-year profit forecast after a 16% jump in online sales and early holiday inventory wins. On the flip side, U.S. consumer sentiment edged lower, and Deloitte’s 10% holiday spending drop is weighing on retail stocks.

Walmart is making headlines with its largest-ever IoT deployment—90 million sensors across supply chain and stores—signaling a bet on operational efficiency as a margin lever. Amazon is hiring 250,000 for the holidays, while Costco quietly cements its place as a $9.7B apparel powerhouse.

Your Move: Watch for volatility in apparel and luxury stocks. Consider hedging bets on value-driven retailers and those with strong digital infrastructure.

Category Focus — Luxury & Value Apparel

L uxury is rebounding, powered by Chinese demand and a flight to quality. LVMH’s rally is lifting the entire sector, while value apparel (think Costco) is quietly eating market share. Levi’s is threading the needle—raising prices, securing inventory early, and growing online. The bifurcation is real: premium brands are thriving, but mid-tier is squeezed. As a former buyer, I’ve seen this movie before—shoppers either trade up for “worth it” or down for “good enough.”

Your Move: Double down on clear value messaging in both luxury and value segments. Avoid the mushy middle.

Retail Dive — General Merchandise

G eneral merchandise is holding steady, but the mix is shifting. Electronics and home are soft, while consumables and seasonal (Halloween, holiday décor) are outperforming. Digital price tags and IoT are making inventory smarter, not just cheaper. Barnes & Noble is a surprise winner, with foot traffic up and brick-and-mortar expansion post-pandemic. The lesson: curation and community still matter.

Your Move: Lean into seasonal and consumable categories. Test digital shelf tech for real-time pricing agility.

TikTok + Social Trends — General Merchandise

T ikTok and Instagram are driving micro-trends: “dirty soda” is the latest beverage craze, and “holiday reset” videos are racking up millions of views. Influencers are spotlighting digital price tags and AI-powered shopping assistants. I’ve seen retailers go viral overnight with the right TikTok challenge—don’t underestimate the power of playful, shareable content.

Your Move: Partner with micro-influencers to amplify new tech and seasonal launches. Encourage user-generated content around in-store experiences.

Apparel Pulse

A pparel is a tale of two cities: luxury is up, value is up, and the middle is getting squeezed. Costco’s $9.7B in apparel sales is a wake-up call for traditional players. Levi’s is winning with early inventory bets and modest price hikes. Nike is raising prices and betting on a China comeback, but warns of a sluggish holiday. Kendra Scott is expanding into Western wear, chasing the “coastal cowgirl” trend.

Your Move: Secure Q4 inventory now. Test limited-edition drops and regional trends to drive urgency.

Toys & Play

J ellycat is doubling profits on the back of an adult-fueled plush craze, and chocolate prices are set to rise into Halloween as cocoa costs double. Toy aisles are seeing more “kidult” and nostalgia-driven purchases. As a parent, I’ve noticed the plush aisle is as busy with millennials as it is with kids. Nostalgia is a powerful sales driver.

Your Move: Expand plush and nostalgia assortments. Prepare for higher COGS in candy and seasonal treats.

Data Pulse

K ey metrics: Holiday spending forecast: -10% YoY (Deloitte). Average planned holiday spend: $1,595. LVMH luxury sector gain: +$80B in market cap. Levi’s online sales: +16% Q3. Walmart IoT sensors: 90 million deployed. Amazon holiday hires: 250,000. Costco apparel sales: $9.7B (last year).

Your Move: Use these benchmarks to calibrate your own Q4 forecasts and inventory plans.

In-Store Traffic Trends — Forecast vs Actual

F oot traffic is up at Barnes & Noble and select value retailers, but soft at mid-tier department stores. Extended hours at Sam’s Club and new store openings (Krispy Kreme in Madrid) are drawing crowds. The “experience economy” is back—shoppers want more than just transactions.

Your Move: Invest in in-store events and exclusive drops to drive traffic. Track traffic patterns and adjust staffing accordingly.

Retail Demand Prediction — Holiday 2025

E xpect a late, value-driven holiday surge. Shoppers are holding out for deals, but will spend on “worth it” items and experiences. Watch for a spike in last-minute online and BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) orders.

Your Move: Prepare for a compressed holiday calendar. Flex fulfillment and staffing for a late-season rush.

😂 Retail Reality Check — A Daily Laugh

O nly in retail: A plush toy brand (Jellycat) is doubling profits thanks to adults, and “dirty soda” is the beverage of the moment. If you’d told me a decade ago that digital price tags and AI chatbots would be the talk of the holiday season, I’d have asked for a refill on my coffee. The more things change, the more shoppers surprise us.

Your Move: Stock grace daily.